Outperform Call from Wolfe Research Highlights Dramatic Momentum Shift for This Natural Gas Pure Play

Shares of Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK) have rarely been a fixture on the front page of Wall Street research—until now. With today’s upgrade from Wolfe Research, one of the sector’s most influential voices, the East Texas-focused natural gas producer moves squarely into the institutional spotlight. Wolfe’s new “Outperform” rating and $34 price target signal a striking potential upside of nearly 27% from today’s pre-market price of $26.825. In a sector defined by volatility and cyclical swings, such decisive analyst action can be catalytic for both sentiment and institutional flows.

In today’s market, analyst upgrades—especially from highly regarded firms—frequently precede inflection points in both valuation and narrative. For Comstock, the upgrade arrives just as technical momentum and volume spike to multi-year highs, setting the stage for a possible re-rating.

Key Takeaways:

• Wolfe Research’s $34 price target implies a potential upside of 26.7% from the current price.

• Comstock shares have surged to 52-week highs, up over 240% from last year’s lows, with a marked acceleration in daily volume and momentum indicators (RSI > 76).

• Recent news flow is split: Zacks flags CRK as a “strong momentum stock,” while MarketWatch lists it among names to avoid—revealing deep polarization in analyst and media sentiment.

• The company’s Q2 2025 earnings report, scheduled for July 31st, will be a critical catalyst for confirming or challenging the bullish thesis.

• Wolfe Research’s reputation as an energy sector specialist adds significant weight to the upgrade, especially in the context of Comstock’s improving technical and trading profile.

Wolfe Research’s Upgrade: Expert Endorsement or Contrarian Bet?

Analyst Upgrade and Firm Background

Wolfe Research, known for its deep energy sector expertise and independent, data-driven research, has upgraded Comstock Resources from “Peer Perform” to “Outperform,” attaching a $34 price target. While Wolfe is not among the largest bulge-bracket banks, its focused research and influential following in the hedge fund and institutional space make its calls highly actionable—especially in energy, where sector nuances can be overlooked by generalists.

This upgrade is notable for its timing: Comstock is trading at all-time highs, yet Wolfe argues the rally has further to run. Given Wolfe’s track record in energy (often cited for prescient calls on natural gas cycles and E&P inflection points), its endorsement signals rising institutional confidence and potential for fresh capital inflows.

“Momentum and technicals support further upside, but the valuation still discounts Comstock’s leverage to natural gas price recovery.”
— Wolfe Research, June 17, 2025

Stock and Financial Performance: A Story of Re-Rating and Momentum

Comstock Resources operates as a pure-play natural gas producer, primarily exploiting the prolific Haynesville Shale in East Texas and North Louisiana. With a business model tightly linked to US natural gas prices, Comstock has historically been leveraged to both the upside and downside of commodity cycles.

One-Year Price Action: A Volatility Masterclass

• 52-Week Low: $7.74 (August 5, 2024)

• 52-Week High: $26.825 (June 17, 2025)

• Current Price: $26.825 (pre-market, June 17, 2025)

• Performance Since Lows: +246%

• 20-Day EMA/SMA: ~$24.3

• Recent RSI: 76.3 (deeply overbought territory)

• Average Daily Volume: 2.47 million shares (spiking to over 6.7 million at peaks)

These metrics reveal a meteoric rise, with momentum traders and institutional flows driving CRK into technically overbought territory. Yet, high RSI alone is not always a sell signal, especially in commodity upcycles where prices can remain overbought for extended periods.

Financials and Operating Leverage

While detailed Q1 2025 financials are not provided here, Comstock’s earnings sensitivity to natural gas prices is well known. In prior quarters, the company has demonstrated disciplined capital spending and a focus on low-cost drilling, positioning it for outsized cash flow in a rising price environment.

With Q2 2025 results due July 31, analysts will be watching for:

• Production growth and realized gas prices

• Margin expansion (or contraction) versus sector peers

• Updated guidance for the second half of 2025

News Flow and Sentiment: A Tale of Two Narratives

Positive Momentum

• Zacks Investment Research (June 16, 2025): “Here’s Why Comstock Resources (CRK) is a Strong Momentum Stock”
  Read article
  Zacks highlights Comstock’s technical strength and inclusion in its “momentum” screen, attracting quant-driven and momentum-oriented investors.

Bearish Caution

• MarketWatch (June 11, 2025): “20 stocks you should avoid — no matter how well the market does”
  Read article
  MarketWatch, citing risk factors, suggests CRK remains a high-risk, high-volatility play—underscoring the polarization in current sentiment.

Upcoming Earnings Catalyst

• GlobeNewswire (June 9, 2025): Comstock announces Q2 2025 earnings date (July 30 post-market, call July 31).
  Read release

Technicals: Overbought or Just Getting Started?

Comstock’s technical profile is remarkable:

• RSI of 76.3: Typically signals overbought, but in momentum-driven commodity rallies, prices can extend much further.

• 20-Day EMA/SMA: Stock trades nearly 10% above both, confirming a powerful uptrend.

• Bollinger Bands: Price sits above the upper band, again supporting overbought—but not necessarily exhausted—conditions.

• Volume: Recent sessions have seen volume spikes to nearly 3x average, suggesting institutional accumulation.

Potential Upside: Is Wolfe’s $34 Target Achievable?

With a target price of $34 versus the current $26.825, Wolfe’s call suggests a 26.7% upside from today’s levels. In the context of Comstock’s recent run, such upside would imply a continued re-rating, likely predicated on sustained strength in natural gas prices, positive Q2 earnings, and perhaps further upward momentum from technical traders.

What Would it Take to Get There?

• Natural gas prices remaining robust or moving higher

• Q2 results beating expectations on volumes or margins

• Continued technical squeeze and institutional inflows

However, it’s worth noting the risks: technical overbought conditions, macro volatility in energy markets, and the potential for disappointing earnings could all introduce setbacks.

Wolfe Research’s Influence: Why This Upgrade Matters

Wolfe Research is revered for its sector specialization and willingness to issue contrarian calls. Its research is closely read by long/short hedge funds and institutional investors, lending extra weight to today’s upgrade. In a market where energy stocks often trade on sentiment as much as fundamentals, such an endorsement can drive real flows. The upgrade’s timing—on a fresh 52-week high—suggests Wolfe sees further upside despite apparent technical exhaustion.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Call Amidst Sector Volatility

Comstock Resources stands at the intersection of powerful technical momentum and improving institutional sentiment. Wolfe Research’s upgrade and $34 price target send a strong signal that—despite overbought technicals and polarized news flow—the rally may still have legs. With Q2 earnings looming, investors face a classic risk/reward setup: a potential further breakout on strong results, or a sharp retracement if momentum fades or fundamentals disappoint.

Comstock is now a battleground stock, but one with clear institutional sponsorship and outsized upside if the bullish thesis plays out. Wolfe’s call is not merely a cheerleading upgrade—it’s a nuanced, data-driven endorsement at a critical market juncture.

Upcoming Catalyst: Mark July 31 for Q2 earnings—the next definitive test of whether Comstock can deliver on Wolfe’s bullish vision.