Baird Bets on Wix.com’s Comeback: Why One Analyst Sees Opportunity Where Others See Volatility

Wix.com Ltd. (WIX)—the cloud-based website development platform powering millions of businesses and creators worldwide—just received a major vote of confidence from Wall Street. On May 23, 2025, influential analyst firm Robert W. Baird upgraded Wix from "Neutral" to "Outperform," setting a fresh price target of $190 per share. For investors bruised by Wix’s recent 16% post-earnings plunge, this upgrade signals not just a potential rebound, but the makings of a contrarian opportunity in a battered SaaS leader.

Analyst upgrades are more than mere opinion—they’re inflection points. When a top-tier firm like Baird makes a bullish call after market turmoil, investors tune in. Here’s why this upgrade could be a catalyst for Wix’s next act—and what the data reveals beneath the headlines.

Key Takeaways:

• Potential Upside: Baird’s $190 price target offers a 24% potential return from Wix’s current price near $153.56.

• Recent Stock Action: Wix shares tumbled 16% following a Q1 earnings miss, but stabilized as analysts digested strong revenue growth and product momentum.

• News Drivers: Despite an EPS miss, analysts note a robust product pipeline and second-half growth plans. Some cut forecasts, but bullish sentiment persists.

• Technical Indicators: RSI near 41, below the 20-day moving averages, and volatility spiked post-earnings—signs of near-term oversold conditions.

• Volume & Sentiment: Trading volume soared to a year-high after the earnings release, indicating heightened market attention and possible capitulation.

Baird’s Upgrade in Context: Analyst Confidence and Reputation

Robert W. Baird is no lightweight in technology and SaaS coverage. With a track record of deep sector research, Baird’s upgrades are closely tracked by institutional investors. The move from Neutral to Outperform—particularly in the wake of a sharp earnings-related selloff—signals conviction that Wix’s challenges are transitory, not structural.

Baird’s $190 price target isn’t just a round number: It represents a 24% upside from the current price, a notable swing in analyst sentiment. This is especially significant given the mixed Wall Street reaction to Wix’s Q1 results. Baird’s specialty in identifying SaaS inflection points lends extra weight to this upgrade, especially for investors seeking opportunities in post-selloff rebounds.

Wix.com: The Business Model and Market Position

Wix.com is a global leader in DIY website creation and cloud-based business solutions, serving a diverse customer base from solopreneurs and SMBs to e-commerce stores and agencies. Its freemium model—where users can build and publish sites for free, then upgrade for premium features—has driven consistent user growth and recurring revenue expansion.

The company’s competitive moat includes a robust app ecosystem, integrated payments, and powerful AI-driven design tools. With the digitalization of small business still in early innings globally, Wix is well positioned to capture secular growth in online presence and e-commerce enablement.

Stock and Financial Performance: Volatility, Resilience, and Recovery Potential

Wix’s Q1 2025 earnings report was a double-edged sword. Revenue grew 13% year-over-year to $473.7 million—beating consensus—but EPS fell short, triggering a 16% selloff. The volatility was compounded by record-high trading volumes, suggesting a capitulation event rather than a fundamental breakdown.

Snapshot of Key Financials (Q1 2025):

The technical picture is equally telling: Wix now trades below both its 20-day EMA and SMA, and its RSI near 41 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory. This technical reset, coupled with robust underlying business growth, sets the stage for a rebound—should execution improve in the coming quarters.

Recent News, Market Sentiment, and Analyst Debates

The market’s negative reaction to the Q1 report was swift, but not universally pessimistic. As Benzinga noted:

"Wall Street analysts rerated Wix.com after the company reported its fiscal first-quarter 2025 results… The quarterly revenue grew 13% to $473.7 million, topping the analyst consensus estimate of $472.9 million."
(Benzinga)

While some analysts cut forecasts on lower earnings, others highlight Wix’s strong product pipeline and ambitious plans for the second half of 2025. This divergence creates a classic battleground scenario—fertile ground for contrarian investors who believe in management’s execution.

From The Motley Fool:

"Following its release on Wednesday of quarterly results that disappointed many market players, the DIY website creation specialist's stock price fell by a queasy 16%."
(The Motley Fool)

Technical Analysis: Oversold Setup or More Pain Ahead?

Wix’s technical setup is intriguing. The stock sits well below its 20-day moving averages (EMA at $169.08, SMA at $171.13) and is bouncing just above its 52-week low. The RSI of 41.25 indicates a market that may be oversold in the near term. Volatility, as measured by daily range and volume, spiked post-earnings—often a hallmark of a capitulation bottom.

Yet, the sentiment ratio (up days vs. down days) is just under 0.47 for the year, suggesting the market’s mood has been more bearish than bullish. For value-oriented or contrarian investors, this is precisely the kind of setup that historically precedes sharp mean-reversion rallies—provided fundamentals remain intact.

Potential Upside: What a $190 Target Implies

With Wix trading at $153.56 and Baird’s target at $190, investors are looking at a potential 24% return if the stock closes the gap. This upside is not just theoretical: Historically, major analyst upgrades after capitulation events have driven sharp short-term bounces, especially when the underlying business shows resilience.

Should Wix execute on its second-half growth plans and deliver earnings normalization, the path to $190 is plausible. For investors with a high risk tolerance and a belief in SaaS recovery themes, this risk/reward setup may be attractive.

Sector Backdrop: SaaS Volatility, Secular Growth, and Market Rotation

The broader SaaS sector has been under pressure in 2025 as investors rotate out of high-multiple tech. However, the sector’s long-term secular drivers—digital transformation, SMB adoption, and global e-commerce—remain unbroken. Wix, with its global reach and sticky subscription base, stands to benefit as macro headwinds ease.

Robert W. Baird’s upgrade thus signals not just a call on Wix, but a broader contrarian bet on SaaS stabilization and recovery into the second half of 2025.

What Could Go Wrong? Risks and Considerations

No upgrade is risk-free. Wix faces:

• Execution Risk: Management must convert product pipeline into revenue and profit growth.

• Competitive Pressures: Squarespace, Shopify, and WordPress continue to innovate and compete for SMB customers.

• Macro Headwinds: If rate volatility or recession fears re-ignite, SaaS multiples could compress further.

• Technical Resistance: Wix must reclaim its 20-day moving averages and build momentum to avoid a value trap scenario.

Conclusion: Opportunity in the Aftermath

Baird’s upgrade of Wix.com to Outperform, with a 24% upside target, marks a pivotal moment for the stock. For sophisticated investors, the combination of technical oversold conditions, resilient business fundamentals, and high-profile analyst conviction creates a compelling setup. While risks remain, those attuned to market psychology and SaaS cycles may find Wix’s current reset to be a rare entry point—especially with sector sentiment still cautious.

As always, investors should weigh the analyst’s thesis against their own due diligence and risk tolerance. But today, Baird’s call stands out: Not just as a price target, but as a market signal that the worst may be over—and that upside could be closer than the market thinks.