Wedbush Sees Outperformance Potential for TMC — Can Deep-Sea Metals Mining Deliver the Next Big Return?

The latest analyst upgrade for TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC)— a pioneering player in deep-sea polymetallic nodule mining — has sent ripples through the materials sector. On June 25, 2025, Wedbush, a highly influential Wall Street research firm, raised its rating on TMC from Neutral to Outperform with a fresh price target of $11 per share. This represents a high-conviction call amid a recent surge in TMC's share price and heightened investor focus on critical minerals for the energy transition. For investors seeking exposure to the next generation of metals extraction, this upgrade — and the data behind it — demand close scrutiny.

Key Takeaways:

• Wedbush’s $11 price target implies a potential upside of approximately 52% from TMC’s current price of $7.245.

• TMC stock has seen explosive momentum in June, with a 23.7% single-day jump recently and a 9.6% gain in early trading.

• Board appointments of energy sector veterans and regulatory experts reinforce TMC’s U.S. strategy and corporate governance.

• Despite bullish momentum, the stock is flagged in some analyses as potentially overextended, with a recent RSI near 79 and a year-long run from $0.72 to $7.40.

• Wedbush’s sector expertise and history of impactful calls add weight to the upgrade, especially as TMC’s business model aligns with surging demand for critical minerals.

The Deep-Sea Metals Play: Why TMC Is Drawing Analyst Attention

TMC the metals company Inc. is a trailblazer in the exploration and planned commercial extraction of polymetallic nodules from the ocean floor. These nodules contain high-value metals like nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese—vital inputs for batteries, renewable energy infrastructure, and high-tech manufacturing. The company’s business model is built around securing and developing mining licenses, advancing extraction technologies, and forging partnerships across the energy, automotive, and defense supply chains. TMC’s core assets are among the world’s largest undeveloped resources of these critical metals, making it one of the most closely watched names in the clean energy supply chain.

The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, surging electric vehicle demand, and the global race for mineral independence has made companies like TMC a focal point for both institutional investors and regulatory bodies. Analyst upgrades, particularly from well-respected firms, are key inflection points for such speculative, high-growth names.

Analyst Upgrade and Wedbush’s Market Influence

Wedbush’s upgrade from Neutral to Outperform is significant for several reasons. First, the firm is renowned for its deep sector research and history of moving markets in emerging industries. Its analysts have been early (and accurate) on several major materials and energy trends in the past decade. The $11 price target marks a clear departure from a cautious, wait-and-see approach, signaling conviction in TMC’s operational and strategic progress.

According to Wedbush’s research commentary, the upgrade reflects both TMC’s accelerating traction on regulatory and governance fronts and its ability to capitalize on supply-demand imbalances for key battery metals. The analyst team’s focus on supply chain de-risking and commercial milestones — including recent board appointments of figures with deep regulatory and energy sector backgrounds — is particularly relevant amid growing scrutiny of mining practices and ESG factors.

“Wedbush’s reputation for early, high-impact calls in materials and energy lends strong credibility to this Outperform rating. The analyst team’s focus on supply chain de-risking and regulatory momentum aligns with TMC’s recent milestones.” DeepStreet

Stock Performance: Volatility, Momentum, and Technical Caution

TMC shares have staged a dramatic rally in 2025. The stock’s current price of $7.245 is up nearly 10% from the prior close and represents a staggering move from its 52-week low of $0.721 (December 2024) to its recent all-time high of $7.40 (June 20, 2025).

One-Year Stock Price Table (Select Highlights):

• Average daily volume: 4.0 million

• Recent RSI: 79 — signaling potentially overbought conditions

• 20-Day EMA: $5.33 (well below current price, supporting the view of a sharp breakout)

The sentiment ratio of 0.46 (up days to down days) over the past year underscores the volatility typical of speculative, early-stage resource plays. Technical traders will note the significant divergence from 20-day moving averages and a notably high RSI, suggesting the stock may be due for consolidation or profit-taking in the near term.

Financials: Building the Case for Commercialization

While TMC remains pre-revenue, its financial narrative is centered on asset value, strategic partnerships, and the pace of regulatory approvals. The company’s recent board additions — Michael Hess (energy infrastructure veteran) and Alex Spiro (capital markets and regulatory expert) — were explicitly designed to fortify its U.S. market access and governance as it moves toward commercial recovery of deep-sea nodules.

From the June 16, 2025 GlobeNewswire release:

"Appointments strengthen TMC's Board as the Company executes on its U.S. strategy and accelerates progress toward commercial recovery of polymetallic nodules in international waters under the existing U.S. seabed mining code."

This is a crucial inflection point: If TMC can secure and defend its regulatory position, commercial revenues could materialize faster than the market currently anticipates.

Recent News — Momentum and Caution in the Spotlight

• The Motley Fool (June 18, 2025): "TMC The Metals Company stock is roaring higher... up 23.7% as of 3:30 p.m." The article attributes the surge to growing momentum around clean energy metals and investor enthusiasm for the company’s commercialization timeline.

• Benzinga (June 23, 2025): Cautions that TMC is among the “Top 2 Materials Stocks That May Collapse in Q2,” flagging concerns about momentum-driven overextension and reminding investors of the sector’s risks.

This bifurcation — between bullish strategic progress and warnings of technical or speculative excess — is typical for early-stage resource equities at major inflection points.

Potential Upside: How High Could TMC Go?

With a Wedbush price target of $11 and shares currently trading at $7.245, the implied upside is approximately 52%. For context, this is among the largest upside differentials in the materials sector for a stock of TMC’s market capitalization and risk profile. Should the company deliver on regulatory and commercial execution, the stock could re-rate sharply; however, if progress stalls or macro headwinds intensify, downside risks remain substantial given the high beta and recent parabolic move.

Table: Upside/Downside Scenarios

Sector Context and Analyst Confidence

Wedbush’s upgrade carries outsized significance given the firm’s sector focus, institutional client base, and history of influencing early-stage resource valuations. In an environment where access to critical minerals is increasingly linked to national security and energy policy, TMC’s progress is being watched by more than just speculative retail traders. The company’s board moves and regulatory momentum support the view that it is positioning itself for a first-mover advantage in an emerging, highly strategic metals market.

What Investors Should Watch Next

• Execution on Regulatory Milestones: The speed and clarity with which TMC can secure mining licenses, environmental approvals, and offtake agreements will be the leading indicator for sustained upside.

• Balance Sheet Strength: While not directly discussed in the upgrade, investors should monitor cash burn, funding runway, and dilution risk as commercialization ramps up.

• Sector Rotation and Macro Trends: Flows into (or out of) clean energy transition plays, and the broader sentiment for speculative growth equities, will impact TMC’s volatility profile.

• Short-Term Technicals vs. Long-Term Fundamentals: Elevated RSI and parabolic moves suggest near-term caution, but successful regulatory and commercial milestones could confirm Wedbush’s longer-term thesis.

Conclusion: Wedbush’s Bold Call — An Inflection Point for Deep-Sea Mining Exposure

The Wedbush upgrade of TMC to Outperform, with a $11 price target, marks a pivotal moment in the company’s evolution from speculative deep-sea resource story to a potential leader in the supply of critical energy transition metals. While the upside case is compelling, investors must weigh the volatility, execution risk, and technical caution signs that accompany any early-stage asset in a nascent, controversial industry. For those with a high risk tolerance and appetite for transformational growth, TMC’s next moves — and Wedbush’s conviction — bear close monitoring.