William Blair’s Bullish Call on Viasat: What Investors Need to Know

Viasat Inc. (VSAT), a global leader in satellite communications and connectivity solutions, just received an influential upgrade from William Blair, shifting from "Market Perform" to "Outperform." This upgrade comes amid activist pressure, volatility, and compelling strategic optionality—raising the stakes for investors watching the company’s next moves in the high-growth communications sector.

Analyst upgrades serve as critical signals for investors, particularly when delivered by established research houses with a reputation for rigorous due diligence. In Viasat’s case, the upgrade arrives at a pivotal moment: the company is navigating operational and activist-driven upheaval, while its stock is rebounding sharply off multi-year lows. Understanding the context and implications of this analyst action is essential for those seeking to capture asymmetric risk-reward in undercovered corners of the market.

Key Takeaways

• Upgrade Impact: William Blair upgrades Viasat to "Outperform," signaling renewed confidence in the company’s trajectory.

• Stock Price Surge: VSAT is up more than 15% in today’s session, extending a dramatic rally from historical lows touched late last year.

• Activist Spotlight: Carronade Capital is publicly advocating for a breakup, arguing for substantial value creation—potentially 215%-520% upside if the defense business is separated.

• Technical Indicators: With RSI at 74, VSAT is technically overbought, reflecting strong momentum but also signaling caution for new entrants.

• Volume Spike: Today’s trading volume is sharply elevated, underscoring heightened investor interest post-upgrade and post-activist news.

• No Published Price Target: William Blair’s upgrade lacks a disclosed price target, but recent activist commentary suggests far higher intrinsic value than current trading levels.

William Blair’s Upgrade: Why It Matters

Analyst Firm Profile & Influence

William Blair is a highly respected, mid-sized U.S. investment bank known for its deep research coverage in technology, communications, and industrials. Their analysts have a track record of surfacing early inflection points in underappreciated stocks. An "Outperform" rating from William Blair typically signifies conviction in both near-term catalysts and longer-term value creation, particularly when the firm upgrades from a neutral stance amid market controversy.

Strategic Inflection Point: The Activist Catalyst

Over the past week, Viasat has become the focus of public activist engagement:

• Carronade Capital Management (2.6% owner) issued an open letter urging a spin-off or IPO of the defense and advanced technologies division, claiming the segment alone is worth $50/share. Carronade argues for a total implied upside of 215%–520% if management pursues a separation.

• Reuters and GlobeNewsWire highlighted Carronade’s campaign, with the Financial Times quoting sources suggesting a breakup could drive a fivefold increase in valuation.

• Viasat’s management responded, acknowledging the activist letter and hinting at ongoing strategic review.

“We believe the sum-of-the-parts value of Viasat is dramatically higher than today’s price. A defense separation could unlock $50/share in value.”
– Carronade Capital, July 2025 (source)

Viasat’s Business Model: Complexity and Optionality

Viasat delivers satellite broadband and connectivity solutions worldwide, serving aviation, enterprise, government, and defense markets. The company’s business model is multi-pronged:

• Commercial Broadband: Global satellite internet and data services, with recent expansion via acquisitions and new constellation launches.

• Defense & Advanced Technologies: Secure communications, government networks, and tactical connectivity for military clients.

• Mobility Solutions: In-flight Wi-Fi and connectivity for commercial airlines and private jets.

This complexity creates both opportunities (cross-sell, scale) and challenges (execution risk, capital intensity). The activist argument is that the defense segment is undervalued within the conglomerate structure, obscuring the true worth of Viasat’s parts.

Stock Price and Technical Analysis: From Laggard to Leader

Recent Price Action: A Dramatic Turnaround

• Current Price: $19.19 (up 15.8% today)

• 52-Week Range: $6.69 (Nov. 2024 low) to $24.80 (Aug. 2024 high)

• Historical Context: VSAT languished near record lows for much of the last year before rebounding sharply in recent weeks, coinciding with activist engagement and renewed analyst coverage.

Technical Indicators:

• RSI: 74 (overbought territory)

• 20-Day EMA/SMA: Both around $15.49, signaling a sharp move above recent averages

• Bollinger Bands: Price now well above upper band ($17.60), suggesting short-term exuberance

Sentiment & Volume:

• Only 45% of last year’s trading days saw positive closes; recent volume and price action suggest a major sentiment reversal.

Momentum or Overextension?

While the short-term move is robust, technicals warn of potential near-term exhaustion. However, price breakouts following analyst upgrades and activist involvement can lead to powerful multi-week rallies if new institutional buyers step in.

Financial Performance: Navigating Through Complexity

Note: Latest quarterly and annual financial data was not provided in this snapshot. Investors should review Viasat’s most recent 10-Q and 10-K for a detailed breakdown of segment performance, debt profile, and margin trends.

Historically, Viasat has struggled with thin margins, heavy capital expenditures (for satellite launches), and episodic profitability. The company’s cash flow profile is highly sensitive to major contract wins/losses in both commercial and defense units.

Key Considerations:

• Balance Sheet: Leverage remains elevated post-acquisitions and satellite investments. Any asset separation (as activists demand) could reshape the company’s financial flexibility.

• Growth Drivers: Aviation connectivity and Pentagon contracts offer cyclical and secular growth, but execution risk is non-trivial.

• Earnings Power: If the defense business is as valuable as activists suggest, VSAT could be trading at a substantial discount to intrinsic value.

Recent News: The Activist Spotlight

Viasat has dominated the headlines in the last week:

1. Carronade Capital’s Open Letter: Calls for strategic separation, asserts potential for $50/share in value from defense unit alone.

2. Reuters, Financial Times Coverage: Reports amplify the activist thesis, bringing new institutional attention to the stock.

3. Viasat’s Response: Management’s public acknowledgment of the activist campaign signals that strategic options are actively under review.

This confluence of events—activist agitation, management’s openness, and now William Blair’s stamp of approval—creates a powerful narrative for rerating.

What’s the Potential Upside?

With no explicit price target from William Blair, we turn to activist estimates and recent price action:

• Carronade’s SOTP Estimate: $50/share for the defense business alone, suggesting a 160%+ upside from current levels.

• Current Price: $19.19/share

• Implied Upside: 160% to $50/share per activist; upside could be even greater if the commercial business is valued separately post-breakup.

This range is speculative but underscores the magnitude of the opportunity if strategic actions materialize.

Final Thoughts: Asymmetric Risk or Overhyped Rally?

Viasat now sits at a rare intersection: technical momentum, activist agitation, and a high-conviction analyst upgrade. For investors, the situation demands careful attention. The short-term risk of a pullback is real (given the overbought technicals), but the medium-term value proposition—especially if a breakup occurs—could be game-changing.

Key Watch Points:

• How swiftly management responds to activist demands and strategic review

• Whether additional analysts follow William Blair’s lead with new or higher price targets

• Ongoing volume and sentiment shifts as new institutional investors step in

Bottom Line:
Viasat’s upgrade from William Blair is more than just a fresh rating—it’s an institutional green light at a time of profound change. Investors seeking outsized returns from misunderstood or underappreciated stories should keep VSAT firmly on their radar, while remaining mindful of near-term volatility and the technical backdrop.