A pivotal analyst upgrade and breakthrough trial results propel Exelixis to the forefront of biotech growth narratives.

Exelixis Inc (EXEL) isn’t your typical biotech story. Specializing in the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel therapies for cancer, Exelixis has steadily climbed from niche oncology player to a company with blockbuster ambitions. Its lead asset, CABOMETYX, drives significant revenue, but it’s the recent clinical breakthroughs—especially the promising results for zanzalintinib in colorectal cancer—that have thrust the company into the limelight. Stephens’ recent upgrade to “Overweight,” alongside a bold $60 price target, arrives at a moment of surging momentum for Exelixis—and could mark a watershed for investors seeking asymmetric upside in the biotech sector.

Key Takeaways:

• Potential Upside: Stephens’ new $60 price target vs. the current price of $44.62 signals a potential 34% upside for Exelixis shares.

• Stock Price Momentum: EXEL is up over 20% in the first half of 2025 and is trading near its 52-week high following strong trial results and upwardly revised financial guidance.

• Breakthrough Clinical Data: Positive Phase 3 data for zanzalintinib in metastatic colorectal cancer and expanded indications drive optimism about future revenue streams.

• Analyst Confidence: Stephens’ upgrade carries weight, given its history of deep healthcare sector expertise and influence on institutional flows.

• Technical Strength: With a strong RSI (60.6), price above short-term moving averages, and volume surges on positive news, EXEL’s technicals support continued bullish sentiment.

The Significance of the Stephens Upgrade for Exelixis

Analyst upgrades are rarely just about numbers—they signal a recalibration of expectations, often driven by new data or inflections in company trajectory. Stephens, a prominent mid-size investment bank with a robust healthcare and biotech research division, upgraded Exelixis from “Equal Weight” to “Overweight” on June 24, 2025. The new price target of $60 implies a 34% upside from the current pre-market level of $44.62. While Stephens may not have the global footprint of bulge-bracket banks, its sector expertise and track record in small- and mid-cap biotech coverage give this call real weight among institutional and hedge fund investors.

Analyst Upgrade and Firm Background

Stephens’ healthcare research team is known for its rigorous due diligence and long-term approach in the biotech space. Past upgrades from Stephens on oncology-focused names have often preceded broader Wall Street interest, particularly when backed by fundamental clinical or commercial catalysts. Their decision to shift Exelixis to “Overweight”—without a prior price target but now establishing a bullish $60 goal—reflects conviction in both near-term earnings power and pipeline optionality.

This upgrade is not occurring in a vacuum. Stephens’ analysts specifically cited robust Q1 revenue growth (+36% YoY), upwardly revised 2025 guidance, and transformative phase 3 data as key drivers. The timing, immediately following Exelixis’ announcement of strong STELLAR-303 trial results, underscores both the credibility and responsiveness of Stephens’ research process.

“Exelixis’ recent clinical wins are not just incremental—they fundamentally alter the company’s revenue trajectory and competitive position in oncology.”
— Stephens Healthcare Research Note (June 24, 2025)

Business Model and Market Position

Exelixis’ model is straightforward yet potent: focus on high-value, difficult-to-treat cancer indications, leverage clinical success to expand approved uses, and partner for global reach. CABOMETYX (cabozantinib), approved for renal cell carcinoma and other cancers, anchors its commercial portfolio. Zanzalintinib, its next-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor, is positioned to open entirely new markets—most notably in colorectal cancer, where recent trial wins could disrupt the standard of care.

In addition to its internal pipeline, Exelixis has a track record of licensing and collaboration agreements that de-risk development while providing optionality for future revenue. The company’s ability to consistently deliver on clinical and regulatory milestones—backed by a healthy balance sheet—gives it resilience even amid sector volatility.

Stock and Financial Performance: Momentum Meets Fundamentals

Financial Highlights

• Q1 2025 Revenue Growth: +36% YoY, driven by continued uptake of CABOMETYX and early contributions from zanzalintinib.

• Full-Year Guidance: Management raised 2025 revenue outlook, citing accelerating demand and new indication launches.

• Profitability: Exelixis remains among the rare biotechs with consistent profitability, supporting continued R&D investment without dilutive capital raises.

Stock Price Action & Technicals

• 52-Week Range: EXEL has surged from a low of $21.82 to a recent high of $49.62, nearly doubling over the past year. Current price is $44.62, close to its 52-week high.

• Short-Term Technicals: Recent RSI at 60.6 indicates strong momentum but not yet overbought. 20-day EMA ($42.09) and SMA ($42.34) both sit below current price, confirming a bullish short-term trend.

• Volume and Volatility: Highest daily volume of 12.9 million shares was recorded on May 14, 2025, closely following clinical news. Average daily volatility remains below 1%, indicating sustained interest without excessive speculation.

• Sentiment: 127 up days vs. 119 down days in the past year, with a sentiment ratio slightly favoring bulls.

Recent News Flow: Catalysts Drive Re-Rating

• Zacks Investment Research (June 24): Identifies EXEL as a top-performing non-tech Nasdaq stock, up >20% YTD.

• Seeking Alpha (June 23): Highlights both the commercial strength of CABOMETYX and the transformative potential of zanzalintinib, citing expanded guidance and phase 3 data.

• Benzinga (June 23): Reports on topline results from the pivotal STELLAR-303 trial, with management targeting $5 billion in sales on the back of new indications.

All of these headlines have converged to create both fundamental and technical tailwinds for Exelixis, fueling the case for Stephens’ bullish re-rating.

Potential Upside: What Does 34% Mean for Investors?

The delta between the current market price ($44.62) and Stephens’ new $60 target implies approximately 34% upside from today’s level. For a profitable, mid-cap oncology company already demonstrating double-digit revenue growth, this is a meaningful risk/reward skew—especially as the biotech sector regains favor following a multi-year bear cycle.

Notably, this upside does not even factor in optionality from future pipeline catalysts (expanded indications, potential acquisitions, or new partnerships), which could further re-rate the stock if positive. The technical setup—with price breaking to new highs, strong relative strength, and robust institutional flows—adds further credibility to the idea that EXEL’s run may be in its early innings.

Strategic Takeaways for Investors: Positioning for the Next Leg Higher

The Stephens upgrade is more than just a headline—it’s a synthesis of clinical, commercial, and technical catalysts. Key factors to monitor:

• Regulatory Milestones: Watch for FDA review and approval timelines for new zanzalintinib indications.

• Pipeline Progress: Expansion of trials into additional cancers (nccRCC, HNSCC) keeps the story dynamic.

• Partnership and M&A Potential: Exelixis’ clean balance sheet and proven commercial engine make it a potential strategic target or partner as the oncology M&A cycle warms up.

• Sector Rotation: As capital rotates back into growth healthcare, high-quality, cash-generating biotechs like Exelixis are likely to attract outsized flows.

Conclusion: Why This Upgrade Matters

Stephens’ upgrade of Exelixis to “Overweight” with a $60 price target is a significant event, reflecting not just improved fundamentals but a step-change in the company’s growth narrative. The combination of clinical momentum, commercial execution, and technical confirmation makes EXEL one of the most compelling long ideas in biotech today. The 34% upside is underpinned by real catalysts and credible analyst conviction—making this a name to watch as oncology innovation continues to capture Wall Street’s imagination.