A New Trajectory for a Defense Titan: Benchmark Company Upgrades RTX to "Buy"

RTX Corporation (RTX), the world’s largest aerospace and defense company by revenue, has moved to the forefront of investor attention after The Benchmark Company upgraded its rating from "Hold" to "Buy" and set a price target of $140—a level not seen in over a year. This decisive shift comes at a time when the defense sector is experiencing robust demand, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and record global defense spending. Analyst upgrades like today's are closely watched by sophisticated investors, as they often mark inflection points in market sentiment and can trigger significant capital flows, especially when backed by credible firms with sector-specific insight.

The Benchmark Company’s move is particularly noteworthy, as it signals a renewed confidence in RTX’s growth prospects after a period of operational headwinds and mixed market sentiment. With RTX shares trading at $129.83 as of the upgrade, the new target implies a potential upside of nearly 8%. For investors seeking exposure to defense, aerospace, and high-tech manufacturing, this call could mark a pivotal moment to reassess portfolio allocations.

Key Takeaways:

• Potential Upside: Benchmark’s $140 price target for RTX implies an 8% upside from current levels.

• Stock Price Context: Despite a recent pullback (-0.68% today), RTX has exhibited persistent strength, with a one-year high of $136.17 and a low of $99.07, reflecting resilience amid volatility.

• News Catalysts: Key headlines include CEO Chris Calio’s upcoming presentation at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, the high-profile PhantomStrike radar spotlight, and sector-wide bullishness as defense equities approach technical "golden cross" patterns.

• Technical Momentum: The stock’s RSI near 75 suggests short-term overbought conditions, but long-term technicals (EMA and SMA) point to a solid bullish trend.

• Analyst Confidence: Benchmark’s sector expertise and timely call add weight to the upgrade, aligning with improving financials and a favorable industry backdrop.

The Benchmark Company’s Upgrade: Context and Credibility

Why Benchmark’s Call Commands Attention

The Benchmark Company, known for its disciplined, data-driven approach and sector specialization in industrials and defense, rarely issues high-conviction upgrades without substantial evidence. Their transition from "Hold" to "Buy" for RTX arrives after a period of operational recalibration for the company, suggesting that key risks have abated or are now viewed as manageable. Benchmark’s influence in institutional circles amplifies the impact of this upgrade, especially as it coincides with growing investor appetite for defense stocks.

"With the defense sector in a multi-year upcycle and RTX positioned as a technology leader, we believe the risk/reward has shifted decidedly positive."
— Benchmark’s equity research note (paraphrased)

The $140 target marks a clear shift in analyst sentiment, moving from caution to confidence—often a precursor to broader market re-rating.

RTX at a Glance: Business Model and Sector Drivers

RTX Corporation is a global powerhouse in aerospace and defense, formed from the merger of Raytheon and United Technologies. The company operates through three primary segments: Collins Aerospace (avionics, interiors, and mechanical systems), Pratt & Whitney (aircraft engines), and Raytheon (missiles, air defense, and cyber solutions). RTX’s business model relies on long-cycle defense contracts, recurring aftermarket services, and a growing portfolio of next-generation technologies, such as advanced radars, hypersonics, and integrated battle management systems.

The sector’s near-term drivers include:

• Escalating geopolitical tensions (Eastern Europe, Indo-Pacific)

• Record U.S. and NATO defense budgets

• Modernization of legacy military systems

In this environment, large-cap defense primes like RTX enjoy high visibility into revenue and cash flows, a critical advantage during macroeconomic uncertainty.

Stock Performance: Navigating Volatility, Building Momentum

RTX’s share price journey over the past year encapsulates both the challenges and strengths of the defense sector. After bottoming at $99.07 in July 2024, the stock steadily advanced, reaching a high of $136.17 in March 2025. Recent trading has seen some consolidation, with the current price at $129.83—just below its 52-week highs, reflecting robust investor confidence.

Technical indicators provide additional nuance:

• 20-day EMA: $127.95 (bullish alignment above the 20-day SMA of $126.62)

• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $134.81, Lower at $118.44—RTX is trading closer to the upper band, indicating momentum but also potential short-term exhaustion.

• RSI: At 74.87, the stock is technically overbought, suggesting the possibility of near-term consolidation.

Despite today’s minor pullback (-0.68%), average daily volumes remain healthy (5.4 million shares), and the sentiment ratio is positive (more up days than down days over the past year). These trends point to a well-supported rally, underpinned by institutional flows and sector-wide rotation.

Financial Health: Leaner, Stronger, Poised for Growth

RTX’s recovery from post-merger integration challenges and engine recall issues has been reflected in its improving financials:

• Revenue: RTX remains the largest pure-play defense contractor by sales, with a diverse backlog across air, land, and cyber domains.

• Profitability: Margins have rebounded after last year’s engine recall headwinds, as evidenced by expanding operating cash flows and disciplined cost controls.

• Balance Sheet: Leverage ratios are trending lower, and the company continues to return capital via dividends and selective buybacks.

The company’s mix of high-margin aftermarket services (notably in Pratt & Whitney) and multi-year government contracts provides a defensive buffer against economic downturns and inflation.

News Flow and Catalysts: Adding Fuel to the Rally

Recent headlines have amplified bullish sentiment around RTX:

• CEO Presentation at Bernstein Conference (May 28, 2025): This high-profile appearance is expected to showcase RTX’s innovation pipeline and strategic vision, potentially serving as a further catalyst for the stock. (PRNewsWire)

• PhantomStrike Radar Spotlight: Zacks cautioned investors about premium valuations and downward earnings revisions, but the product’s exposure has increased RTX’s visibility in next-gen radar markets (Zacks).

• Sector-Wide Bullishness: Benzinga notes that RTX is part of the "Golden Dome" defense trio (with LMT and NOC) poised for a bullish technical pattern, a golden cross, which often precedes strong rallies (Benzinga).

Is the 8% Upside Conservative? Opportunity and Risks for Investors

With RTX trading at $129.83 and Benchmark’s target set at $140, the implied upside is 8%. Given the stock’s technical momentum, improving fundamentals, and macro tailwinds for defense, this target appears well within reach—potentially conservative if the sector’s upcycle accelerates.

Key Opportunities:

• Further upside if U.S./NATO defense spending continues to surprise on the upside

• Margin expansion from Pratt & Whitney and Collins Aerospace recovery

• New contract wins or international sales breakthroughs

Key Risks:

• Short-term valuation risk due to high RSI and recent run-up

• Execution risk on next-gen programs (notably engine reliability)

• Political risk if global defense budgets face unexpected headwinds

Conclusion: A Timely Re-Rating for a Sector Leader

The Benchmark Company’s upgrade of RTX to "Buy" with a $140 target is more than just a routine rating change—it reflects a recalibration of both company-specific and sector-level risk/reward. As RTX approaches technical resistance near its 52-week highs and sector momentum builds, investors now have a well-supported catalyst to revisit this defense giant. While short-term technicals warrant tactical caution, the fundamental case for RTX’s medium- and long-term outperformance is strengthening.

For investors seeking a blend of stability, innovation, and sector tailwinds, RTX warrants close monitoring—and, following Benchmark’s call, potentially a place at the core of a modern defense and aerospace portfolio.