Despite a rating cut, On Holding retains a bullish price target—here’s the data-driven analysis on whether the stock’s run is far from over.

On Holding AG (ONON)—the Swiss performance sportswear company that has redefined running shoes and athletic apparel with its patented CloudTec technology—has attracted considerable investor attention as the global demand for premium athletic wear accelerates. Today, the influential analyst firm Raymond James shifted its rating from "Strong Buy" to "Outperform" while maintaining a robust price target of $66. This nuanced downgrade, which still projects a substantial upside from current levels, comes amid volatile trading and notable news developments. Understanding both the rationale and the risk behind such a shift is critical, especially when the sector remains dynamic and On Holding’s financial trajectory is anything but ordinary.

Key Takeaways

• Potential Upside: Raymond James’ new price target of $66 signals a potential upside of roughly 30% from the current price of $50.75.

• Stock Price Volatility: Shares have declined 4.6% in the latest session, underperforming the broader market and reflecting elevated volatility in recent weeks.

• Market Sentiment: The downgrade from "Strong Buy" to "Outperform" suggests a moderation in conviction, but the high price target reveals continued analyst optimism.

• Recent News: Coverage highlights both risk management strategies amid global trade shifts and ONON’s status as a trending stock, underscoring persistent investor interest.

• Technical Factors: The stock is currently trading below its 20-day moving averages and near its lower Bollinger Band, with an RSI around 45, indicating neither oversold nor overbought conditions.

Raymond James’ Downgrade: Nuanced, Not Bearish

Analyst Firm Profile and Context

Raymond James, a top-tier U.S. investment bank with a reputation for deep sectoral research, especially in consumer and apparel, commands strong institutional respect. The firm’s decision to adjust its rating for On Holding from "Strong Buy" to "Outperform" is best understood as a shift from aggressive to confident bullishness. The $66 price target remains well above the current market price, implying a meaningful upside and reflecting ongoing confidence in the company’s growth prospects, even if near-term risks are now more apparent.

Raymond James’ deep consumer sector expertise adds weight to the upgrade, especially given their history of accurate calls in global growth names.

Why This Matters:

A downgrade to "Outperform" is not a bearish call, but rather a signal that while On Holding’s risk/reward is still attractive, some caution is warranted due to market or company-specific headwinds. The high price target suggests the analyst sees near-term volatility but expects the longer-term growth narrative to hold.

Stock Price Performance: Decoding Recent Volatility

Price and Volume Trends

• Current Price: $50.75

• Previous Close: $53.21

• 1-Day Move: -4.6%

• 52-Week Range: $34.59 (Low, April 4, 2025) to $64.05 (High, January 30, 2025)

• Average Daily Volume: 4.63M shares

Technical Picture

• 20-Day EMA: $53.19

• 20-Day SMA: $52.91

• Bollinger Bands: Lower $50.92 | Upper $54.89

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44.97

The stock’s sharp recent decline has pushed it below both its 20-day moving averages and close to its lower Bollinger Band, often seen as a technical support zone. Trading volume remains healthy, indicating continued market attention.

Sentiment Analysis

• Up Days: 116

• Down Days: 130

• Sentiment Ratio: 0.47 (suggests a slight bearish tilt over the past year)

What’s Driving the Downgrade?

Recent News and Macro Factors

Several news items frame the current investment debate:

• Global Trade and Tariff Risks: As Seeking Alpha notes, “Global trade shifts and US tariffs increase portfolio risk, requiring a balanced investment approach.” This macro factor is cited as a reason to diversify and reduce exposure to high-volatility names like On Holding.

• Market Underperformance: Zacks recently highlighted ONON’s slide even as the broader market rose, reflecting growing market skepticism or sector rotation.

• Trending Status: Despite volatility, ONON remains among the most-watched stocks, suggesting continued investor fascination with its growth story.

"I've diversified internationally and reduced exposure to slow-growth, high-debt US businesses amid recession risks." — Seeking Alpha, July 21, 2025

Financials: Growth, But With Risks

While company financials were not provided in detail today, On Holding’s business model—premium pricing, high gross margins, and rapid international expansion—underpins its long-term growth thesis. However, the same factors expose it to macroeconomic slowdowns, currency headwinds, and supply chain disruptions.

Potential Upside: Still Attractive at 30%

With shares at $50.75 and the new price target at $66, the implied upside is approximately 30%. For investors, this means that Raymond James still sees substantial room for appreciation—despite a more measured view on the risk/reward profile.

This level of upside is notable, especially after a period of underperformance. It suggests that, in the analyst’s view, the current volatility is more an opportunity than a red flag for long-term investors.

On Holding’s Business Model: Innovation in a Crowded Market

On Holding’s unique value proposition lies in its proprietary CloudTec sole, premium branding, and community-driven marketing. The company straddles the line between high-performance running (competing with Nike, Adidas, and Hoka) and lifestyle fashion, capturing a broad demographic. Its global expansion strategy, especially in the U.S. and Asia, drives high topline growth, but exposes it to international risk factors—now more relevant than ever in a fraught macro environment.

Sector Dynamics

The performance athleticwear sector has enjoyed a multi-year tailwind, but is now facing normalization as post-pandemic demand wanes and competition intensifies. Companies with strong brands and innovation pipelines, like ONON, are better positioned, but must navigate macro headwinds and changing consumer sentiment.

Technical and Sentiment Considerations

Recent price action and technical indicators point to increased volatility, but no clear sign of capitulation. The RSI near 45 is neutral; price near the lower Bollinger Band often acts as a support zone. The stock’s volume remains robust, indicating that institutional investors are still engaged.

Conclusion: How Should Investors Respond?

Raymond James’ downgrade, while headline-grabbing, masks an underlying vote of confidence in On Holding’s long-term prospects. The 30% potential upside suggests that, for those able to weather volatility and accept near-term macro risks, the stock remains a compelling growth play. However, reduced rating conviction signals the need for more rigorous risk management and close monitoring of both company execution and sector sentiment.

The message is clear: On Holding is transitioning from a must-own hypergrowth story to a high-quality growth opportunity—still attractive, but with eyes wide open to the risks.

Additional Observations

• Market Liquidity: Trading volumes and liquidity remain strong, supporting institutional participation.

• Sector Rotation: Broader market trends could continue to impact ONON as investors rebalance portfolios amid macro uncertainty.

• Upcoming Catalysts: Watch for earnings updates, trade policy shifts, and sector data for fresh inflection points.

As always, the balance between conviction and caution should guide position sizing and risk controls in this volatile, but still promising, growth story.