A rare reversal from BofA Securities on Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte highlights shifting risk–reward dynamics for airport operators in Latin America.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB), one of Mexico’s three major publicly traded airport groups, operates and manages 13 airports across northern and central Mexico—including the key Monterrey International. The company’s business model is built on long-term government concessions, offering exposure to both aeronautical revenues (passenger and cargo traffic) and non-aeronautical income (retail, parking, real estate). OMAB’s performance is closely tied to air travel demand, tourism, and broader economic trends in Mexico, making its stock a bellwether for Latin American transport infrastructure investors.

On May 19, 2025, BofA Securities upgraded OMAB from "Underperform" to "Neutral"—a move that stands out given the stock’s robust rally to all-time highs and its outperformance relative to global peers. While the new rating does not come with a stated price target, the upgrade alone signals a major shift in BofA’s risk–reward assessment. Analyst upgrades—especially from influential global firms—can serve as critical inflection points, reflecting changing market sentiment and institutional confidence.

Key Takeaways:

• BofA Securities upgrades OMAB from Underperform to Neutral amid strong stock price momentum; no explicit new price target was issued.

• OMAB’s shares hit an all-time high ($101.85) within the last week, up nearly 70% from 52-week lows, before slight retracement.

• Recent news highlights OMAB’s sector outperformance and strong Q1 2025 results, with earnings and traffic growth exceeding analyst expectations.

• Technical indicators (RSI 85.8, price well above 20-day EMA) suggest the stock is in overbought territory, signaling potential near-term volatility.

• BofA’s upgrade, despite a neutral rating, reflects recognition of OMAB’s resilient business model and positive sector momentum, even after a historic run-up.

Analyst Upgrade and What It Reveals About Market Sentiment

BofA Securities’ decision to lift OMAB out of the “Underperform” category is notable for two reasons. First, BofA is a global heavyweight with deep sector expertise and significant institutional influence; its ratings can move both sentiment and capital. Second, the upgrade comes at a time when OMAB has already posted outsized gains, suggesting BofA now sees risk more balanced than previously.

In the context of global infrastructure investing, a shift from "Underperform" to "Neutral" is not a bullish call, but it does mark a significant reduction in perceived downside. It also signals that, despite valuation concerns after a run-up, OMAB’s fundamentals and sector backdrop remain robust enough to warrant more cautious optimism. BofA’s reassessment aligns with OMAB’s recent earnings surprise and sector outperformance—underscoring a broader re-rating of Latin American transport assets.

BofA Securities: Weight of the Upgrade

BofA’s research division is widely respected for its rigorous fundamental analysis and cross-market sector coverage. Historically, the firm has taken a conservative stance toward emerging market infrastructure, often assigning underweight ratings to stocks with regulatory, macro, or currency risk. Their willingness to upgrade OMAB now—despite the lack of a price target—strongly suggests that earlier fears over regulatory headwinds or demand softness have eased. This puts additional weight behind the upgrade, as BofA is not known for chasing momentum.

"This move out of 'Underperform' territory by BofA is all the more remarkable because it comes after OMAB’s historic price surge, not before. This signals a genuine change in the risk–reward calculus rather than simply following the crowd."
— DeepStreet.io

Price Action, Technicals, and Financial Performance

Stock Performance: Outpacing the Sector

OMAB’s stock has delivered exceptional returns over the past year, rallying from a 52-week low of $59.08 to a recent high of $101.85—a nearly 73% gain. The shares are currently trading at $99.95, just off their all-time highs, and have posted 129 up days versus 117 down days over the past year. Average daily trading volume remains robust at 73,000 shares, though recent sessions have seen some contraction, possibly indicating consolidation after the sharp rally.

Technical Analysis

• RSI at 85.8: The current Relative Strength Index reflects an overbought condition, suggesting that while momentum is strong, a period of volatility or short-term pullback is likely.

• 20-Day EMA at $93.38: The stock’s price is well above its recent moving averages, confirming the strength of the uptrend but also hinting at stretched valuations.

• Bollinger Bands: OMAB is trading near its upper Bollinger Band ($103.53), another sign that the stock may be overheating in the near term.

Financials: Resilient Growth and Margin Expansion

Recent earnings releases have painted a picture of strength:

• Q1 2025 Earnings: OMAB reported robust revenue and earnings growth, driven by record passenger traffic and higher non-aeronautical revenues. Margins expanded, reflecting both operating leverage and effective cost controls.

• Balance Sheet: The company maintains a conservative capital structure, with ample liquidity and manageable debt—critical for weathering economic turbulence.

• Sector Comparison: A recent Zacks article notes that OMAB is outperforming both domestic and international transportation peers, a testament to its unique positioning and operational excellence (source).

“Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB) saw its shares surge in the last session with trading volume being higher than average. The latest trend in earnings estimate revisions may not translate into further price increase in the near term.”
— Zacks Investment Research (source)

Sector Context: Latin American Airport Operators in the Spotlight

OMAB’s upgrade comes as investor interest in Latin American infrastructure surges. Structural tailwinds—including tourism recovery, currency stability, and a benign regulatory outlook—are driving re-ratings across the sector. OMAB’s diversified airport portfolio, operational efficiency, and prudent capital allocation have positioned it as a leader in capturing these trends.

However, risks remain. Mexican airport concessionaires remain exposed to regulatory intervention, especially around fee structures and concession renewals. Additionally, OMAB’s high RSI and premium valuation increase the risk of short-term correction. Investors should keep an eye on upcoming regulatory events and macroeconomic data.

Potential Upside and Risk Profile

While BofA’s new “Neutral” rating does not imply a clear bullish case, it does signal that OMAB’s risk profile has improved. With the stock trading near its all-time highs, the potential for further rapid gains may be limited, but the underlying business remains on solid footing. OMAB’s 73% move off the 52-week lows and its leadership in the Latin American airport sector mean it remains a core holding for many institutional portfolios.

Additional Observations

• Volume Trends: OMAB’s highest volume day (284,543 shares) occurred during a key earnings release, suggesting institutional participation on positive news.

• Sentiment Ratio: The stock’s up/down day ratio (0.52) and recent price momentum reflect sustained market optimism, though some consolidation is likely.

• Volatility: Average daily volatility (2.45%) is notable but not excessive for the sector, supporting OMAB’s role as a relatively stable emerging market play.

What’s Next? Where Does OMAB Go From Here?

The BofA Securities upgrade marks a psychological inflection point for OMAB. While the firm refrains from an outright bullish call, its removal of the “Underperform” label is a tacit endorsement of OMAB’s business resilience, sector tailwinds, and earnings momentum. For sophisticated investors, OMAB continues to offer a unique blend of yield, growth, and inflation protection—but at current prices, position sizing and risk management are critical.

As always, monitor for further analyst commentary, regulatory developments, and traffic trends. OMAB’s next earnings call and any updates on government policy will be particularly important catalysts.