JP Morgan Turns Bullish—Can Nike Outrun Its Laggard Past?

Nike (NKE), the world’s premier athletic footwear and apparel brand, has just received a significant vote of confidence from JP Morgan, one of Wall Street’s most influential investment banks. Upgrading their rating on Nike from “Neutral” to “Overweight” and boosting the price target to $93, JP Morgan signals a potential inflection point for the sportswear giant. This marks a notable reversal for a company that has underperformed in recent years but may now be poised for a resurgence amid shifting industry dynamics and signs of operational revival.

Analyst upgrades from powerhouse firms like JP Morgan often mark subtle turning points in market sentiment—especially when paired with robust price targets. Today’s upgrade is especially meaningful, not just for its implied upside, but for what it says about Nike’s evolving fundamentals and the street’s recalibrated expectations.

Key Takeaways

• JP Morgan’s new $93 price target for Nike suggests a 17% upside from current pre-market levels ($79.33).

• Nike shares have surged nearly 4% in early trading, showing immediate market enthusiasm following the upgrade.

• Recent news points to improving earnings momentum, a technical breakout, and bullish analyst revisions from multiple top-tier firms.

• Nike’s technicals are improving, with RSI near 68 and a strong push above key moving averages, hinting at sustained positive momentum.

• The upgrade comes despite Nike’s recent years of underperformance, hinting at a potential turnaround narrative.

JP Morgan’s Upgrade: Confidence from a Wall Street Powerhouse

Why JP Morgan’s Call Matters

JP Morgan’s stature as a top-tier, global investment bank brings both analytical rigor and significant market influence to their calls. The firm’s coverage is renowned for its depth in consumer and retail, and their “Overweight” designation is reserved for stocks they expect to outperform sector peers. The $93 price target is not only a bold call but one that diverges from the more cautious stance maintained by many analysts over the past year.

JP Morgan has a long-standing reputation for sector expertise and often moves markets with high-impact ratings changes. Their shift from "Neutral" to "Overweight"—especially after a period of notable underperformance—reflects strong conviction in Nike’s near-term prospects. The new price target represents a 17% premium to current prices, indicating confidence that recent momentum is more than just a technical bounce.

Stock Performance: A Technical Breakout After Years of Underperformance

Nike’s share price currently stands at $79.33, up nearly 4% in pre-market trading following the upgrade. This move builds on a recent string of positive sessions; the stock’s RSI is now just below 68, a sign of rising investor enthusiasm but not yet in overbought territory. Notably, the stock is breaking above its 20-day EMA ($73.23) and upper Bollinger Band ($78.63), a technical milestone not seen since 2021.

One-Year Price Action: From Lows to Recovery

• 52-week low: $52.28 (April 2025)

• 52-week high: $90.62 (September 2024)

• VWAP (year): $70.94

• Average daily volatility: 1.81%

For most of the past year, Nike has underperformed both sector peers and the broader market. The sentiment ratio (up days vs. down days) sat near parity at 0.50, reflecting a lack of conviction. However, recent weeks have seen a clear momentum shift, with volume and volatility picking up as institutional buyers return.

Financials: Signs of an Earnings Revival

Nike’s challenge has been to reignite growth after a period of softer-than-expected results, driven by global inventory issues and currency headwinds. Recent upgrades by both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs (as reported by Investors Business Daily) coincide with:

• Stabilizing margins and improved supply chain execution.

• A recovery in key markets, particularly North America and Greater China.

• Accelerated adoption of RFIDs and digital commerce channels.

These improvements are beginning to filter through to the income statement, with analysts expecting a rebound in both revenue and net income in the coming quarters. The strategic partnership and merchandising upgrades (highlighted in Benzinga’s recent coverage) are further evidence of operational momentum.

Key News Flow: Analyst Upgrades and Technical Breakouts

Recent headlines reinforce the upgrade story:

"Nike stock eyes first breakout above key moving average since 2021. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs revise estimates for Dow Jones retailer."
— Investors Business Daily, July 28, 2025 (link)

“NIKE NKE and Target TGT have undergone less-than-ideal price action over recent years, underperforming in a big way and regularly posting weaker-than-expected results.”
— Zacks Investment Research, July 24, 2025 (link)

“Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. ASO is strengthening its merchandising, RFID technology and operational capabilities to drive more consistent performance amid choppy sales trends.”
— Benzinga, July 24, 2025 (link)

The consensus: Nike is at a potential inflection point, with analyst sentiment turning more positive as technicals and fundamentals align.

The Upside Case: 17% Potential Return—What’s Priced In?

Based on JP Morgan’s new $93 price target and Nike’s current pre-market price of $79.33, investors are looking at a potential 17% upside. This is especially notable given:

• Recent technical breakouts above key moving averages.

• Renewed institutional interest, as evidenced by a surge in trading volume and positive momentum.

• A shift in analyst consensus from cautious to constructive.

For investors, the upgrade is a call to re-evaluate Nike’s place in portfolios, particularly as the risk/reward balance shifts in the company’s favor for the first time in several quarters.

Risks and Considerations: Is the Turnaround Durable?

While the upgrade is bullish, investors should monitor:

• Execution risk in digital and international expansion.

• Competitive pressures from nimble rivals and changing consumer preferences.

• Potential macro headwinds, including FX volatility and global demand shifts.

However, with operational improvements showing up in both news flow and financials, and the technical setup looking increasingly favorable, the risk/reward equation is tilting toward opportunity.

Conclusion: A New Chapter for Nike—Inflection or Illusion?

JP Morgan’s “Overweight” rating and $93 price target mark a clear signal that the tide may be turning for Nike. With a 17% potential upside, revitalized technicals, and improving fundamentals, the case for a rebound is persuasive. As always, execution will be key—but after years of underperformance, the playbook for Nike bulls looks suddenly far more attractive.

Ignoring this upgrade could mean missing the opening sprint of Nike’s next marathon move.