Jefferies Upgrade Shines Light on First Solar’s Growth Prospects

In a decisive move that could shape investor sentiment across the renewable energy sector, Jefferies has upgraded First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) from Hold to Buy and set a new price target of $192—a notable premium to today’s trading price. As the global energy landscape pivots ever more aggressively toward decarbonization, First Solar’s unique positioning as a U.S.-based, vertically integrated solar module manufacturer stands out. The Jefferies upgrade, backed by their deep sector expertise, brings renewed focus to the stock just as solar investment hits historic highs worldwide. Analyst upgrades such as this are not mere headlines: they can signal inflection points, especially when aligned with macro trends and strong fundamentals.

Key Takeaways:

• Jefferies’ new $192 price target implies a 14% upside from the current price of $168.81.

• First Solar’s stock has recently outperformed the market, posting a 2.5% gain in the latest session and showing resilience amid solar sector volatility.

• Record-setting global energy investment—$3.3 trillion in 2025, with solar leading the way—provides a powerful sector tailwind.

• Recent media coverage highlights both bullish and bearish analyst sentiment, underscoring a battleground stock narrative.

• Technical indicators reveal a moderate bullish trend, with First Solar trading above its 20-day EMA and an RSI near 55.

Jefferies’ Upgrade: Analyst Confidence and Sector Context

Why Jefferies’ Voice Matters

Jefferies, a leading global investment bank with a long track record in industrials and cleantech coverage, brings credibility and sector-savvy analysis to the table. Their upgrade of First Solar from Hold to Buy coincides with a sector-wide surge in investor capital and growing institutional interest in solar technologies. Jefferies’ specialty in alternative energy and infrastructure means their calls often reflect rigorous bottom-up and top-down analyses—a key reason their upgrades carry weight in the institutional investor community. The timing of this upgrade aligns with both First Solar’s recent outperformance and a groundswell of sector momentum, suggesting high analyst conviction.

“Solar PV is attracting more capital than any other energy technology, as clean energy investment surges to $2.2 trillion, double that of fossil fuels.” — IEA, via Benzinga

New Ratings and Price Target: A Closer Look

• Old Rating: Hold

• New Rating: Buy

• Previous Price Target: N/A

• New Price Target: $192

• Current Market Price (June 11, 2025): $168.81

The $192 price target set by Jefferies represents a 14% increase from current levels, suggesting room for further appreciation even after the stock’s recent run-up. This move also follows a period of mixed analyst sentiment, with other research outlets offering contrasting takes on First Solar’s near-term risks and opportunities.

Navigating the Solar Boom: First Solar’s Business Model and Sector Dynamics

Company Overview: What Sets First Solar Apart?

First Solar, Inc. is a global leader in photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions, specializing in the design, manufacture, and sale of advanced thin-film solar modules. Unlike many rivals, First Solar maintains a U.S.-centric supply chain and benefits from vertical integration—from manufacturing to project development and energy services. This model offers both cost control and regulatory insulation, especially as U.S. policymakers ramp up support for domestic clean energy manufacturing.

First Solar’s primary customers are utilities, independent power producers, and commercial/industrial clients seeking large-scale solar generation projects. The company’s focus on thin-film technology (as opposed to crystalline silicon) has allowed it to differentiate on efficiency, durability, and cost—critical factors as solar adoption accelerates globally.

Sector Tailwinds: Historic Global Investment

The solar industry is riding a wave of unprecedented capital inflows. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global energy investment is set to hit a record $3.3 trillion in 2025, with solar technologies at the center of this surge. Clean energy investments now outpace those in fossil fuels by a factor of two, positioning solar as a structural growth story for years to come.

Stock Price Performance: A Battleground Narrative

Recent Moves and Technical Readings

First Solar’s stock has gained 2.5% in the latest trading session, closing at $164.62 and currently trading at $168.81 during open market hours. This move comes on the heels of robust volume (785,047 shares) and follows a volatile year, where the stock ranged from a $116.56 low (April 2025) to a $274.08 high (June 2024).

Key Technicals:

• 20-day EMA: $159.51

• 20-day SMA: $164.33

• Bollinger Bands: $143.04 (Lower), $185.62 (Upper)

• RSI: 54.8 (moderate bullish, not overbought)

With 115 up days and 132 down days over the year, sentiment has been mixed, but recent price action and volume suggest a shift toward constructive momentum. The stock is currently trading above both its recent EMA and SMA, reinforcing the technical case for renewed upside.

Volatility and Volume Insights

• Average Daily Volume: 3.05 million shares

• Average Daily Volatility: $8.78

The stock’s high average daily volatility and robust trading volumes make it a favorite among active investors and traders seeking exposure to renewable energy themes.

Financial Performance: Fundamentals Underpinning the Narrative

While detailed financials were not included in this data set, First Solar’s recent earnings releases have generally highlighted:

• Strong revenue growth driven by robust order books and capacity expansion

• Margin resilience, aided by domestic manufacturing incentives

• A solid balance sheet with ample liquidity to fund further expansion

However, some analysts have flagged negative earnings estimate revisions, a point of contention that keeps the bull/bear debate alive.

Potential Upside: Quantifying the Opportunity

Jefferies’ $192 price target versus the current price of $168.81 represents a potential upside of approximately 14%. For investors, this upgrade suggests Jefferies sees First Solar as undervalued relative to its growth prospects and sector positioning.

What Does This Mean for Investors?

A double-digit return potential, validated by a respected sector analyst, can be a catalyst for institutional flows and renewed retail interest. However, the path may not be linear—recent volatility, macro risks (interest rates, policy shifts), and the mixed analyst sentiment suggest a “battleground” dynamic. Yet, the Jefferies upgrade puts a spotlight on First Solar’s unique strengths at a time when solar investment is hitting all-time highs.

Recent News Flow: Bullish and Bearish Crosscurrents

Positive Sector Headlines

• "First Solar (FSLR) Rises Higher Than Market: Key Facts" (Zacks Investment Research, read article)

  Recent trading sessions have seen First Solar outperforming market averages, a sign of renewed investor interest following sector-wide bullishness.

• "Record $3.3 Trillion Global Energy Investment: Which Solar Stocks Could Soak Up The Sun?" (Benzinga, read article)

  The IEA’s latest report underscores the structural tailwinds for solar stocks, with First Solar often cited among the primary U.S. beneficiaries.

Counterpoint: Bearish Analyst Commentary

• "Bear Of The Day: First Solar (FSLR)" (Zacks Investment Research, read article)

  Some analysts remain cautious, highlighting negative earnings estimate revisions and the risk of margin compression if global solar supply outpaces demand.

Navigating Forward: Opportunities and Considerations

What Could Surprise to the Upside?

• U.S. Policy Tailwinds: Expanding domestic content requirements and new tax incentives could further boost First Solar’s competitive edge.

• Capacity Expansions: If First Solar meets or exceeds production ramp targets, earnings could surprise to the upside.

• Global Demand: Continued exponential growth in global solar installations could drive both revenue and multiple expansion.

What Are the Risks?

• Competitive Pressures: Aggressive global capacity additions (especially from Asia) could pressure pricing.

• Policy Uncertainty: Shifts in trade or clean energy policy could affect demand or profitability.

• Volatility: High daily price swings mean position sizing and risk management are critical.

Conclusion: Is First Solar’s Upside Worth Chasing?

The Jefferies upgrade to Buy on First Solar, with a substantial new price target, is more than a routine analyst note—it’s a timely call on a stock at the crossroads of historic sector growth and evolving competitive dynamics. While the 14% upside is compelling in a market searching for secular growth themes, investors should weigh both the bullish sector narrative and the risks flagged by more cautious analysts. In the high-stakes arena of renewable energy investing, First Solar’s combination of U.S.-centric manufacturing, robust order books, and sector tailwinds makes it a stock to watch as capital continues to flood into solar globally.

For those seeking asymmetric upside with a fundamental and technical underpinning—and the conviction of a top-tier analyst behind them—First Solar deserves a spot on the radar.