A rare shift from Sell to Buy signals renewed confidence and a potential rally for this government IT powerhouse.

CACI International (CACI), a key player in the defense and intelligence IT services sector, has captured investor attention following a major analyst upgrade by Goldman Sachs. In a significant reversal, Goldman moved its rating from Sell to Buy and set a new price target of $544—well above the current market price of $489.58. This bold call comes on the heels of CACI’s Q4 earnings beat and strong contract momentum, suggesting a shift in market sentiment that may unlock substantial value for investors. Analyst upgrades—especially from influential firms—often serve as an early indicator of re-rating potential and sector tailwinds.

Key Takeaways

• Potential Upside: Goldman’s $544 target implies an 11% return from current prices.

• Stock Price Momentum: Shares have rebounded more than 2.5% in early trading, building on a post-earnings pop last week.

• Earnings Beat: CACI’s Q4 results topped Wall Street estimates, fueling bullish sentiment.

• Sector Tailwinds: Ongoing demand for advanced defense and intelligence IT services supports CACI’s multi-year growth thesis.

Goldman’s Upgrade: A Noteworthy Shift from a Market Leader

In a move that stands out for its decisiveness, Goldman Sachs has upgraded CACI’s rating from Sell to Buy, a rare about-face from one of Wall Street’s most influential research desks. Known for their rigorous, data-driven approach and deep sector expertise, Goldman's upgrades often carry outsized influence—particularly in the defense and government services verticals. This upgrade signals a material shift in the firm’s assessment of CACI’s risk/reward profile and strategic positioning.

"Our analysis suggests CACI is entering a period of accelerated contract wins and margin expansion, underpinned by robust federal technology budgets and favorable end-market dynamics."
— Goldman Sachs Equity Research Desk, 8/13/2025

The new $544 price target sits well above the prevailing market price, underscoring Goldman’s conviction that the market is undervaluing CACI’s growth potential and contract pipeline.

Analyst Confidence & Alignment

Goldman’s stature as a top-tier research house, especially in aerospace, defense, and government services, adds significant weight to this upgrade—particularly given their prior skepticism toward the name. This reversal is notable and reflects a clear alignment with CACI’s improving operating fundamentals and sector backdrop.

CACI’s Business Model: Mission-Critical IT for U.S. Security

CACI International provides information solutions and services primarily to U.S. government customers in defense, intelligence, and homeland security. Its offerings cover cyber security, enterprise IT, intelligence analysis, and advanced engineering—areas in high demand as federal agencies modernize mission-critical systems. CACI’s moat is built on:

• Deep, embedded relationships with defense/intelligence agencies

• Large, multi-year contract wins (often with classified components)

• A focus on high-margin, tech-enabled services over commoditized labor

This positioning ensures resilience through budget cycles and provides optionality for upside as federal tech spending grows.

Stock Price and Technicals: Turning the Corner?

CACI’s shares are trading at $489.58 in early trading, having closed at $477.23 the previous session—a 2.26% uptick. This move extends a bullish trend that began with last week’s earnings release. Key technical signals include:

• 20-Day EMA/SMA: Both above $477, supporting the current price strength.

• Recent RSI: At 55.4, indicating neither extreme overbought nor oversold conditions.

• Bollinger Bands: Shares are trending above the lower band ($455.81) but well within the upper band ($497.50), suggesting room to run before hitting technical resistance.

• Volume: Current volumes are at the lower end of the annual range, a sign that more institutional buyers could yet re-rate the stock.

One-Year Perspective

• 52-Week Range: $318.60 (low) to $588.26 (high)

• Recent Trend: 131 up days vs 116 down days, with a sentiment ratio slightly favoring bulls.

• Average Daily Volatility: Moderate at 2.6%, providing liquidity but not excessive risk.

Financial Performance: Momentum Builds

CACI’s Q4 2025 results delivered:

• Revenue and EPS: Both exceeded consensus estimates, as highlighted in recent Zacks and Seeking Alpha coverage.

• Margins: Sequential improvement, driven by contract mix and operating leverage.

• Guidance: Management reiterated confidence in multi-year top-line growth, supported by a robust backlog and pipeline.

Recent News Flow: Catalysts for Re-Rating

• Q4 Earnings Beat: Zacks reports a 3.5% jump in CACI shares after the company topped both revenue and earnings forecasts for Q4.

• Backlog Strength: Management commentary and analyst notes point to a growing backlog of high-margin contracts.

• Sector Momentum: Defense IT peers are also seeing upgrades and multiple expansion amid rising federal tech budgets.

What the Potential Upside Means for Investors

With the stock at $489.58 and Goldman’s target at $544, there is an 11% potential upside—well above the typical single-digit annual return for the sector. This is especially compelling given the recent string of earnings beats, robust contract momentum, and sector-wide tailwinds.

Risk Considerations

• Federal Budget Volatility: While CACI’s contracts are long-dated, any material changes in government spending can impact future growth.

• Execution Risk: Scaling advanced solutions while maintaining margins is a perennial challenge in the space.

Conclusion: A Rare Upgrade with Real Implications

Goldman’s move from Sell to Buy on CACI is more than just a headline—it represents a meaningful inflection in both analyst and market sentiment. For investors, the 11% upside is supported by improving fundamentals, favorable technicals, and growing sector momentum. As always, risk management is key, but the data suggests CACI is poised to outperform as federal IT spending accelerates and contract wins materialize.

Investors should closely monitor further earnings updates, contract awards, and sector developments to gauge whether CACI can deliver on its newly re-rated promise.