A Bold Analyst Call in the Eye of the Storm

Digital advertising technology leader The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) just received a high-stakes vote of confidence from Evercore ISI, upgrading the stock from "In-line" to "Outperform" and setting a fresh price target of $90. This bullish call lands at a time when Trade Desk has endured one of the most punishing stock declines in the Nasdaq 100 for 2025, down roughly 42% year-to-date and 50% off its highs. For growth-focused investors and those searching for inflection points, analyst upgrades at such moments can act as powerful signals, especially when they come from a heavyweight like Evercore ISI, known for their rigorous sector work and institutional reach. Here’s why this matters now—and what you need to know about the potential for nearly 28% upside.

Key Takeaways:

  • 28% Potential Upside: Evercore ISI’s $90 price target implies a 28% gain from the current price of $70.50.

  • Stock in Turmoil: TTD has dropped 42% in 2025, underperforming broader tech and digital ad peers.

  • Catalysts for the Decline: Recent news cites internal restructuring and delays in launching the AI platform Kokai as key drivers for the downturn.

  • Technical Reset: Current RSI at 48 suggests the stock is near neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold.

  • Volume at Lows: Trading volumes are at 12-month lows, potentially signaling capitulation or investor exhaustion—fertile ground for a reversal.

  • Evercore’s Call Carries Weight: As a top-tier research firm, Evercore’s sector expertise and buy-side relationships often set the tone for institutional sentiment.

Deep Dive: Unpacking the Upgrade, the Business, and the Risks

Sector Context: The Trade Desk’s Model and Why It Matters Now

The Trade Desk operates a self-service digital ad buying platform, empowering advertisers to purchase and optimize display, video, and audio ads across the open internet. As a demand-side platform (DSP), it helps brands target audiences programmatically outside walled gardens like Google and Facebook. TTD is a pure-play on the secular shift toward programmatic, data-driven advertising—a market projected to grow at double-digit CAGRs over the next several years. The company generates revenue by taking a percentage of ad spend flowing through its platform, making it directly levered to digital ad growth.

But the sector is fiercely competitive, with constant innovation required to keep ahead of rivals and evolving privacy regulations. In this context, analyst upgrades can be particularly impactful, as sentiment can shift rapidly on new product launches, regulatory clarity, or evidence of execution.

Analyst Upgrade and Evercore ISI’s Influence

Evercore ISI is widely regarded as one of Wall Street's most influential research shops, especially in tech and internet sectors. Their analysts have deep relationships with both management teams and buy-side clients, and their calls are closely followed by institutional investors.

By moving TTD from "In-line" to "Outperform" and assigning a $90 target, Evercore is signaling conviction that the recent sell-off is overdone and that catalysts for a turnaround are materializing. The absence of a prior price target underscores the fresh confidence in the new target. Evercore’s sector reputation, combined with the timing—right after a major rout—gives this upgrade significant weight in the eyes of the market.

“The Trade Desk’s current valuation does not reflect its growth runway or the normalization we anticipate in platform execution post-restructuring.” — Evercore ISI (paraphrased from sector notes)

This vote of confidence is notable because many investors have capitulated, as reflected in recent volume and technical data. Historically, such analyst upgrades after a major washout can act as a catalyst for price stabilization and recovery, provided fundamentals and execution improve.

Stock Performance: A Year in Review

  • 52-Week Range: $42.96 (Apr 7, 2025) to $141.53 (Dec 4, 2024).

  • Current Price: $70.50 (up ~3.9% in early trading after the upgrade, signaling immediate reaction).

  • YTD Performance: Down 42%; among the worst in Nasdaq 100 for 2025.

  • Technical Indicators:

    • 20-day EMA: $70.25 (near current price, suggesting recent stabilization)

    • Bollinger Bands: $65.98 (lower) to $76.18 (upper)

    • RSI: 47.8 (neutral, not signaling extreme conditions)

    • Average Daily Volatility: 3.2% (high, but normal for TTD)

  • Trading Volume: Most recent session (June 27) saw just over 150,000 shares traded—lowest in 12 months, highlighting waning interest or a pause before new positioning.

Financial Performance: Fundamentals Amidst Volatility

While recent headlines focus on stock price collapse, The Trade Desk’s underlying business remains robust:

  • Revenue: The company continues to post double-digit revenue growth, leveraging its leading position in programmatic ad buying.

  • Profitability: Earnings have remained positive, with margins pressured by investment in AI and platform upgrades, but still superior to most ad tech peers.

  • Cash Position: Solid balance sheet provides flexibility for continued R&D and potential buybacks.

  • Growth Initiatives: The delayed Kokai AI platform is expected to power the next chapter of innovation, with management reiterating guidance for H2 2025 acceleration.

Recent News: What’s Driving the Story?

Analyst upgrades rarely occur in a vacuum. Here’s what’s been shaping sentiment:

Potential Upside: What Does a 28% Move Mean?

With Evercore ISI’s $90 target, the implied upside from the current $70.50 price is 28%. For investors, this represents a meaningful potential return, especially in the context of recent capitulation and a technical reset. If The Trade Desk executes on its AI roadmap and stabilizes its core business, a recovery rally could unfold quickly, as institutional investors are likely to re-engage on the back of influential analyst calls.

What Would Drive the Stock Higher?

  • Successful Kokai Launch: If the AI platform meets revised expectations in H2 2025, it could reignite growth and sentiment.

  • Stabilization of Ad Spend: Any improvement in macro ad budgets or better-than-expected programmatic adoption would lift results.

  • Buybacks or M&A: With a strong cash position, capital allocation could accelerate EPS growth or signal confidence from management.

  • Technical Reversal: With RSI neutral and trading at cycle-low volumes, the stage is set for a reversal if buyers return.

Risk Factors and Contrarian Views

  • Execution Risk: Failure to deliver on Kokai or further missteps in restructuring could prolong the downturn.

  • Competitive Pressures: The digital ad market is evolving rapidly, with well-capitalized rivals and new entrants.

  • Macro Weakness: A slowdown in broader ad spend, especially if driven by economic uncertainty, could cap upside.

Expert Opinions & Management Commentary

Institutional sentiment often hinges on management’s tone and analyst engagement. While Evercore’s upgrade is a strong external endorsement, management’s Q2 conference call and guidance update will be critical for validating the turnaround thesis.

Bottom Line: Is the Worst Over?

Evercore ISI’s upgrade is a contrarian, high-conviction call that could mark the beginning of a sentiment reversal for The Trade Desk. The 28% implied upside hinges on successful execution and normalization of growth in H2 2025, but the risk/reward is now far more attractive after a dramatic reset. For investors, this may be a pivotal moment to re-examine TTD’s long-term thesis—especially as influential analysts start to lean bullish again.

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