Wall Street’s Renewed Bet on Coinbase: What’s Driving the Surge?

A major inflection point for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), the largest U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange, has arrived. On May 13, 2025, Monness Crespi & Hardt upgraded Coinbase from “Neutral” to “Buy” and set a bold new price target of $300—implying a potential upside of nearly 31% from the current premarket price of $229. This upgrade comes amid a surge of institutional recognition: Coinbase is now set to join the S&P 500, solidifying its transition from a volatile crypto pure-play to a blue-chip fintech infrastructure provider. Analyst upgrades of this magnitude are pivotal for discerning investors, as they often catalyze further institutional inflows and mark a decisive shift in Wall Street sentiment.

Key Takeaways:

• Potential Upside: Monness Crespi & Hardt’s $300 price target implies a 31% upside from current trading levels.

• Stock Price Momentum: Shares jumped over 10% in premarket trading, buoyed by S&P 500 inclusion news and the analyst upgrade.

• Recent Catalysts: Breaking into the S&P 500 has driven widespread media coverage and renewed bullishness from analysts.

• Technical Setup: RSI now above 70, signaling near-term overbought conditions, yet volumes and volatility point to sustained investor interest.

• Sector Implications: Coinbase’s blue-chip acceptance signals a broader validation of crypto as a mainstream asset class.

Analyst Upgrade: The Weight of Monness Crespi & Hardt’s Endorsement

Who Is Monness Crespi & Hardt?

Founded in 1966, Monness Crespi & Hardt is a respected mid-sized equity research and investment banking boutique, known for early calls on technology and emerging-growth companies. While not the largest Wall Street shop, their upgrades are closely tracked due to a record of contrarian, high-conviction recommendations. Their upgrade from “Neutral” to “Buy,” with a $300 price target, is particularly noteworthy as it follows Coinbase’s string of positive catalysts—including S&P 500 inclusion and improving crypto market sentiment.

This aligns with a broader trend: mid-sized, research-driven firms have been increasingly influential in shaping institutional investor sentiment, especially in tech and disruptive finance. The timing—immediately after S&P 500 inclusion—suggests a high confidence in Coinbase’s sustainable business model and long-term growth prospects.

“Coinbase’s S&P 500 inclusion marks a watershed moment for both the company and the broader crypto ecosystem. We see significant upside as institutional adoption accelerates.”

— Monness Crespi & Hardt Analyst, May 2025

Coinbase: Business Model, Sector Dynamics, and What Sets It Apart

Coinbase operates the largest regulated cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S., offering spot trading, staking, institutional custody, and a rapidly expanding suite of fintech services. Its revenue model is highly sensitive to crypto market volumes and volatility, but the company’s pivot toward institutional services and blockchain infrastructure has diversified its cash flows. The S&P 500 inclusion is more than symbolic—it signals a maturation of both Coinbase and the crypto sector, opening doors to index-fund and ETF inflows previously out of reach.

Sector Context: Crypto Goes Mainstream

The broader crypto sector has faced regulatory headwinds, but Coinbase’s robust compliance framework and engagement with U.S. regulators have positioned it as the go-to platform for institutional crypto exposure. The market is now pricing Coinbase less as a speculative crypto exchange and more as a foundational component of the digital asset economy.

Stock Price Performance and Technical Landscape

12-Month Price Action: Volatility, Momentum, and Institutionalization

• 52-Week Range: $142.58 (Apr 7, 2025) to $349.75 (Dec 6, 2024)

• Current Price: $229.13 (premarket, May 13, 2025)

• 30-Day Change: +10.6% (from $207.22 to $229.13)

• Volume: Recent sessions have seen volumes as high as 42M shares, with today’s premarket volume at 1.1M—indicating robust institutional participation.

Technical Indicators:

• RSI: 70.8 (overbought, but typical for news-driven breakouts)

• VWAP (12 months): $235.41; SMA-20: $197.64

• Bollinger Bands: Price has pierced upper band ($226), suggesting strong upward momentum but also short-term frothiness.

Sentiment and Volatility

• Sentiment Ratio: 0.46 (more down days than up over the past year, but recent momentum is decisively bullish)

• Average Daily Volatility: 14.4%, highlighting both risk and reward for active traders.

Financials: Strengthening Fundamentals Amid Sector Tailwinds

While short-term earnings remain linked to crypto trading volumes, Coinbase’s expanding institutional business and product pipeline are stabilizing revenues. The company’s prudent treasury policies and growing interest income from USDC reserves are further diversifying income streams—a key point for analysts seeking sustainable profitability.

Recent News: S&P 500 Inclusion as a Game-Changer

• Reuters (May 13, 2025): “Coinbase Global's shares jumped nearly 10% in premarket trading after the cryptocurrency exchange became the first digital asset player to be included in the S&P 500.” Read more

• Finbold: “Coinbase flew high... as the world’s biggest publicly-traded cryptocurrency exchange is set to join the S&P 500.” Read more

• Invezz: “Coinbase stock price jumped in the pre-market... It rose to a high of $223, up by over 57% from its lowest point this year.” Read more

Market Impact

The S&P 500 inclusion is expected to drive significant index-fund buying over the next several weeks, supporting both liquidity and valuation multiples. This institutional demand, coupled with Monness Crespi & Hardt’s bullish call, forms a powerful confluence of technical and fundamental catalysts.

What Does 31% Potential Upside Mean for Investors?

With the new price target set at $300 versus a current price of $229, investors are looking at a potential 31% return if Monness Crespi & Hardt’s thesis plays out. This upside is predicated on sustained crypto market adoption, further institutional inflows, and continued product diversification by Coinbase. However, the elevated RSI and recent volatility suggest that while momentum is strong, investors should expect continued price swings in the near term.

Table: Summary of Key Metrics

Risks and Opportunities: Navigating the Path Forward

Key Opportunities

• Index Inclusion: Opens doors to passive flows, ETF buying, and greater analyst coverage.

• Sector Leadership: Coinbase remains the U.S. regulatory standard-bearer, attracting both institutional and retail flows.

• Evolving Business Model: Transition from transactional revenues to recurring, service-based models (staking, custody, institutional lending).

Risks

• Crypto Volatility: Revenue remains tied to trading volumes and crypto prices; sharp drawdowns could hit earnings.

• Regulatory Environment: While Coinbase’s compliance posture is strong, the sector remains in regulatory flux.

• Technical Overextension: RSI and Bollinger data suggest potential for short-term pullbacks following the news-driven spike.

Expert Opinions: The Street Reacts

“We expect inclusion in the S&P 500 to drive significant inflows and further solidify Coinbase’s position as the institutional onramp to crypto.”

— Wall Street Strategist, via Finbold

“The magnitude of Coinbase’s price action suggests that the market sees S&P 500 inclusion as more than symbolic—it’s a validation of crypto’s future.”

— Institutional Investor, via Invezz

Conclusion: Rare Blue-Chip Validation for Crypto

Coinbase’s journey from crypto upstart to S&P 500 blue chip is a defining moment for the industry. Monness Crespi & Hardt’s upgrade and bullish price target validate both the company’s strategy and the sector’s emergence as a core component of modern finance. For investors, the 31% potential upside is compelling—but so too are the risks associated with a rapidly evolving regulatory and market landscape. As always, disciplined position sizing and ongoing due diligence remain critical.